Indonesia Misses FIFA Matchday: Kazakhstan and Sudan Threaten Garuda's FIFA Ranking

Indonesia National Football Team will not only need to wait for the FIFA Rankings update scheduled for 18 November 2026, but also closely monitor match results of competing nations. Kazakhstan and Sudan have emerged as the two most concerning rivals, as both are set to play international fixtures during the November window.

Indonesia currently sits 116th in the world with 1166.50 points. Kazakhstan ranks immediately below with 1166.26 points, while Sudan occupies 118th position with 1156.74 points.

Only 0.24 points separate Indonesia and Kazakhstan. This means even a very small points gain will be enough for Kazakhstan to overtake the Garuda Squad.

Kazakhstan Must Secure Victory Against Moldova

Kazakhstan will play two matches in the ongoing 2026/2027 UEFA Nations League. They will travel to face Moldova on 13 November, before hosting Slovakia three days later.

Moldova currently holds 1015.57 FIFA Points, far below Kazakhstan's total. For this reason, Kazakhstan will actually lose ranking points if they only draw or lose this fixture.

Based on FIFA points calculation simulations, a win over Moldova would add approximately 5.39 points to Kazakhstan's total. Conversely, a draw would see them lose around 2.11 points.

The second fixture against Slovakia presents a very different challenge. Slovakia has 1477.34 points, ranking far above Kazakhstan. Either a draw or win in this match will earn Kazakhstan additional ranking points as the visiting side.

The scenario Indonesia must watch out for is Kazakhstan defeating Moldova, then losing against Slovakia.

Simulations updating points after the first match show that even with this outcome, Kazakhstan would finish the two matches with approximately 1168.11 total points. This figure already exceeds Indonesia's current points total.

If Kazakhstan beats Moldova then manages a draw against Slovakia, their final points tally will be even higher.

Sudan Has Opportunity From Two Fixtures Against Senegal

Sudan also has a chance to overtake Indonesia via the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers. They will face Senegal on 12 November, before playing the same opposition again on 16 November.

Senegal holds a vastly higher FIFA ranking and strength rating compared to Sudan. Under the FIFA points system, Sudan stands to gain a very large points boost if they pull off an unexpected result against the African giants.

Using Sudan's starting total of 1156.74 points and Senegal's 1648.84 points for simulation, two consecutive draws would take Sudan to roughly 1175 points. Even a scenario of one win and one loss would be enough for Sudan to surpass Indonesia's 1166.50 points.

On the other hand, one draw and one defeat would not be sufficient to overtake Indonesia. Two losses would only push Sudan further behind the Garuda Squad.

This fixture schedule between Senegal and Sudan has been officially confirmed by the Confederation of African Football (CAF). Both matches are part of Matchdays 3 and 4 of the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualification stage.

Rwanda And Togo Also Require Monitoring

The race for ranking positions is not limited only to Kazakhstan and Sudan. Rwanda sits 119th globally with 1156.16 points, while Togo occupies 120th place with 1153.04 points.

Rwanda will play two back-to-back Africa Cup of Nations qualifier matches against Mali. Togo meanwhile is scheduled to face Algeria twice over the same international window.

While both nations are currently more than 10 points behind Indonesia, fixtures against much higher ranked opponents offer the possibility of massive points gains should either side pull off an upset result.

Tanzania also warrants close attention. This nation currently ranks 115th with 1166.82 points, holding only a 0.32 point lead over Indonesia.

Tanzania will face Nigeria twice in the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers. Positive results for them will only widen the gap above Indonesia.

How FIFA Ranking Points Are Calculated

FIFA ranking point adjustments use the Elo-based SUM system. The calculation formula is: P = Pre-match Points + I × (W – We).

In this formula, I represents the match weight coefficient, W is the actual Match Result value, and We is the expected result probability calculated based on the relative strength of the two teams.

UEFA Nations League group stage matches carry a weight value of 15. Continental tournament qualification matches such as the Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers have a weight value of 25.

This is why matches between Sudan and Senegal carry a higher points weight than UEFA Nations League group stage fixtures.

This system also explains why drawing against a far lower ranked opponent will result in lost points. Teams rated as stronger on paper are expected to win, so failure to meet this expectation will negatively impact their points total.

All simulations outlined are not official FIFA calculations. Final ranking positions will only be confirmed once all matches are completed and verified as official international 'A' matches. The official FIFA rankings update is scheduled for release on 18 November 2026.