Marc Marquez Has a Chance to End the Mandalika Curse, With Aprilia Emerging as a Serious Threat.

Ducati Lenovo rider Marc Marquez once again faces a major challenge at the 2026 Pertamina Grand Prix of Indonesia. Marquez is chasing victory while aiming to end his run of poor results at Mandalika Circuit.

Practice session results show Marquez still has viable opportunities. However, competition is guaranteed to be difficult as Aprilia has appeared dominant so far.

Meanwhile, the rider nicknamed The Baby Alien is still working to find the optimal bike speed and balance required to adapt to Mandalika's track characteristics.

Automotive Motorsport analyst Priandhi Satria assessed that Marquez has the skill and experience to compete at the front of the field. That said, practice timings confirm the Spanish rider is not yet posting the fastest pace.

"Friday practice results at Mandalika Circuit show Marquez still retains a realistic chance of victory, even if he is not currently the quickest rider on track," stated Priandhi Satria, quoted from his official statement released Saturday in Mandalika, West Nusa Tenggara.

Marquez Has Not Matched Aprilia's Pace

Marquez opened the race weekend with promising form during Free Practice 1. He finished in second position with a lap time of 1 minute 30.369 seconds, just 0.237 seconds behind session leader Marco Bezzecchi competing for Aprilia Racing.

The situation shifted in the subsequent Practice session. Marquez dropped to 5th place with a lap time of 1 minute 29.426 seconds, 0.701 seconds behind fastest rider Raul Fernandez.

Fernandez even set a brand new Mandalika lap record with a time of 1 minute 28.725 seconds. Marco Bezzecchi took second place, while Jorge Martin completed the top three.

With this result, Aprilia locked out all three top positions, demonstrating their clear advantage in single-lap pace.

"These practice results give an early indication of the challenges Marquez will need to overcome," said Priandhi.

For Ducati, closing this time gap is the top priority ahead of the decisive weekend phases. Marquez must improve his single lap performance while also finding the ideal bike setup to maintain consistent speed through Mandalika's sequence of corners and heavy braking zones.

"Aprilia are looking very strong at Mandalika, so Ducati must utilise the upcoming sessions to reduce this deficit," Priandhi added.

Marquez's chances cannot be judged solely from the first free practice results. His second place finish in FP1 confirms he has the raw pace to compete, but his 5th place in the later Practice session confirms there is still ground to make up.

Mandalika Is Not Just About Raw Speed

Marquez's challenge at Mandalika extends far beyond just setting the fastest lap. He will need to maintain consistent performance over full race distance, especially when under pressure from rival riders with competitive pace.

According to Priandhi, the track's characteristics demand a careful strategic approach. Riders must perfectly combine braking control, bike stability through corners, and acceleration on corner exit.

"Mandalika requires perfectly timed braking, stable balance through the apex, and effective acceleration out of every turn. Marquez will need to judge exactly when to push for position, and when to hold his race rhythm," he explained.

For Marquez, race awareness and situation judgement will be just as critical as outright bike speed. Forcing overtaking manoeuvres too early drastically increases the risk of errors. Maintaining a steady consistent rhythm can open up opportunities later on, should rival riders encounter issues.

With Aprilia showing such strong form, Marquez must ensure Ducati can stay competitive without sacrificing bike stability. He has also been instructed to prioritise simply finishing the race, before even considering targeting podiums or victory.

Four Consecutive Non-Finishes At Mandalika

Marquez's history at Mandalika is exactly why this particular weekend carries extra weight. Ever since the Indonesian Grand Prix returned to the calendar in 2022, he has never once completed the main grand prix race.

In 2022, Marquez crashed during the warm up session and was medically ruled unfit to start the grand prix.

The following year, he suffered an in-race crash. For 2024, he was forced to retire from the grand prix due to a technical failure on his bike.

His bad luck continued in 2025. Marquez was involved in a first lap collision with Marco Bezzecchi which eliminated both riders from the race. Marquez sustained an injury to his right shoulder as a result of the incident.

While this streak of misfortune does not automatically predetermine this year's result, this history of incidents underlines how critical it will be to avoid unnecessary risk, remain consistent, and prioritise safe race management.

"Looking at his previous record here, Marquez's first target is just to finish the race. That comes first, after four straight failures to finish at the Mandalika Grand Prix," Priandhi stated.

Qualifying And Sprint Race Are The Next Defining Tests

Marquez still has every opportunity to turn his weekend around. The second free practice session and qualifying will set his grid position, before riders compete in the sprint race. The main grand prix is scheduled for Sunday 11 October.

Grid position will be a critical factor, as Marquez will need a clean start to avoid dangerous incidents in the tight pack of riders on the opening laps.

At the same time, he will need to strike the right balance between aggression and patience if he is to stay in contention with the Aprilia riders.

With the earlier Practice session seeing three Aprilia riders occupy the top three positions, Ducati must use the remaining track sessions to close the performance gap.

Marquez has the experience and talent to turn this situation around, but his success will ultimately come down to bike setup, race strategy, and clean execution out on the track.